Watch for a big tax cut, a huge energy package, and increased military and intelligence-related spending.

By Jeffrey H. Birnbaum

Washington is about to open a second front in its newly declared war: This fight will be against imminent recession. Lawmakers will start trying to inject money into the hands of companies and consumers. And fast.

So fast, in fact, that the budget surplus may soon become a budget deficit. Congress is preparing to move quickly to pass a tax-cut bill worth perhaps $80 billion to $100 billion that could go through in the next few weeks. Every tax wish dreamed up in the last five years is on the table. In the end, the legislation is likely to include a mix of druthers from both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats want an increase in the minimum wage (I know, that's not a tax, but it is key to the package) coupled with a cut in the payroll tax so that low-income people who didn't get a rebate can get some extra cash. Republicans are pushing for a cut in the corporate income tax, the elimination of the corporate alternative minimum tax, and an acceleration of the cuts in individual income-tax rates that were included in the recently passed tax-reduction bill.

In addition, every corporate lobby in town is angling for its own benefit. Airlines are likely to get a bailout, though not nearly as much as they want. Some insurance companies are begging too, but they don't have as sympathetic a case. Investment tax credits for purchases made within the next two years, accelerated write-offs for property and equipment such as computers and software, and special write-offs for small businesses are all options as well.

Capital gains cuts have been high on the Republican priority list for a long time, but they may be sacrificed in exchange for some easing of demands from the Democrats. Why cut cap gains when the stock market is falling? The last thing we need is an incentive to sell, lawmakers are beginning to say to themselves.

In general, Congress is eager to get out of town. Almost all non-disaster-related legislation, from prescription drugs to campaign-finance reform, will be jettisoned. Instead, watch for a huge energy package, heavy on pipeline and refinery-construction incentives. This would please both Big Oil and Organized Labor. The energy legislation will be sold as necessary since our "war" against terrorism could lead to oil disruptions from the Middle East; we need to be more energy self-sufficient. What's more, the subsidies will create jobs and thus boost our troubled economy.

In addition, military and intelligence-related spending will rise, probably significantly. One more: Billions of dollars now are left unused in trust funds for ports, highways, and airports. Those floodgates will probably be opened.

The only place that will fill faster than the money spigot from D.C. will be the roads out of town. Lawmakers are eager to avoid making mistakes and would rather leave the war effort in the hands of the President. Many believe that the best thing they can do is go home, and they will surely do that a lot earlier than they had planned.